Literature on the meaning of "only if"

I've been looking for some empirical studies of A only if B constructions. In the theoretical literature on natural language semantics, there is a number of models, but I want to know more about how they are actually understood. Fortunately, there seem to be some facts about that out there, too.

What Does It Mean, Allegedly?

The problematic issue with the only if construction is that it is supposed to be logically equivalent to a number of related constructions, even though non-logicians sometimes disagree with this. According to the classical convention, the following sentences thus all mean the same:

• It only thunders if it rains.
• If it thunders, it rains.
• If it doesn't rain, it doesn't thunder.

On the other hand, if we reverse the implication, we change the truth conditions:

• It only rains if it thunders.
• If it rains, it thunders.
• It it doesn't thunder, it doesn't rain.

If this was just a mere convention about logical language, all would be fine. The problem is, however, that these sentence forms are not used in the same situations, and they do not integrate equally well into all reasoning patterns in spite of their (alleged) equivalence.

The Performance Problem

One difference between the If A, then B and A only if B forms is that if form is generally more difficult to use in a modus tollens inference than the only if. At least, this is what Carlos Santamaría and Orlando Espino say (Santamaría and Espino 2002, p. 42). They're referring to three studies, including one by Jonathan Evans and M. A. Beck (Evans and Beck 1981).

The problematic case is thus the following inference:

If it thunders, it rains.
It doesn't rain.
–––––––––––––––––
It doesn't thunder.

This (clasically valid) inference should be performed more readily when served in this alternative, and supposedly equivalent formulation:

It only thunders if it rains.

I doesn't rain.

–––––––––––––––––––––

It doesn't thunder.

Cognitively, or perhaps in terms of actual natrual language semantics, this seems to indicate that A only if B works more like the contrapositive If not B, then not A than like its positive translation, If A, then B. Or at least, it seems to issue a conversational warrant closer to it.

It would be interesting to know if this alternative formulation comes with a corresponding decrease—are we trading of willingness to perform the straightforward modus ponens inference for higher rates of modus tollens? This would imply that the following inference generally is less accepted:

It only thunders if it rains.
It thunders.
–––––––––––––––––––––
It rains.

If the only if formulation really does works like a contrapositive, then this inference should appear to us like a modus tollens inference in terms of plausibility and difficulty. I do not know right now whether such an effect can actually be measured or not.

The Issue of Time

Another interesting proposal that Santamaría and Espino cite, also coming from Evans and Beck, is that there is a systematic interaction between our conception of temporal order and the choice of form.

Thus, even though If A, then B, and A only if B are supposedly logically equivalent, we get different patterns of acceptability or naturalness depending on whether A or B happened first. For A preceding B, we then (perhaps) have:

• If you bought on Tuesday, you're paying on Wednesday.
• (?) You bought on Tuesday only if you paying on Wednesday.

And for B preceding A:

• (?) If you're paying on Wednesday, you bought on Tuesday.
• You're only paying on Wednesday if you bought on Tuesday.

Of course, much clearer intuitions can be produced if we ruffle up the tenses a bit. But this, I think, relatively fair example to start the discussion from.

So, Causality?

Note that the issue of before/after interfaces with the concept of causality, which is notoriously bound up with implication, even if logicians and statisticians hate to admit this fact.

Possibly, the the only way we can really justify an inference from a later effect to a prior cause in the form of If EFFECT, then CAUSE is to objectify the cause and the effect by thinking about the observation of the effect and the deduction of the cause. In this way, we would straighten out the temporal sequence so that EFFECT could in fact precede CAUSE.

If this is true, it has a quite important consequence for the psychology of reasoning: We would then only be able to understand abductive inference by effectivly embedding a cause/effect relationship in a different and larger cause/effect relationship—namely the only in which a real or imagined person reasons from fire (the logical "cause") to smoke (the logical "effect").